“Trump the Economist: Great Numbers, Grim Fallout”

Mr. Trump is a better and more clever economist than even the most credentialed practitioners of the dismal science. He’s brilliant. At least, that’s the line from his most loyal cheerleaders. His supporters are so blind that I can't forget to tell a joke where an optimist who falls from a skyscraper. As he passes each floor on the way down, he reassures himself: “So far, so good.”  Mr. Trump’s supporters are ready to hang medals on themselves. They’re not looking down — and they don’t plan to. The future? That’s some other president’s problem. Yes, the next President, whoever comes, will be a nightmare act for him/her.

Planning to settle your kid in the U.S! Planning for his Job Visa! Well U.S is ruining itself and collapsing like a pack of cards. The macro numbers are scary, and the further destination of the number &  the preparation style of the same is scarier. U.S. corporate bankruptcies are quietly mounting, with 371 large firms collapsing year-to-date, the highest in 15 years. Hardest hit are industrials and consumer discretionary sectors, precisely the segments most exposed to global supply chains and input costs inflated by tariffs.

Corporate & Macro Fronts of the U.S

• 40% of Russell 2000 = unprofitable (same zone as 2008)
• Insider buy-to-sell ratio = 0.26, lowest in 7 years
• S&P 500 insider purchases lowest since 2018
• ISM PMI = 48, contraction for 31 of the last 33 months
• Even 2024’s mild rebound couldn’t hold — manufacturing is shrinking persistently
• ISM Services Employment = 46.4 → Shrinking fast (services form 77%+ of U.S. GDP)
• ISM Manufacturing Employment = 43.4 → Recession territory
• Private sector hiring rate = 3.6%, lower than 2001 and 2008 levels
• Long-term unemployment = 24.9%, highest in 2+ years

These are not just “slowdown” numbers — they are structural cracks.

Housing Market Is Cracking

• Freddie Mac home price index down 5 months in a row — only seen during 2008 and the 2022 hiking cycle.
• This undermines household wealth, credit access, and consumer confidence.

 Housing is the most sensitive barometer of interest rate stress. This is a massive red flag.

Consumer Distress = Frontline of a Crisis

• Serious delinquencies (90+ days) across mortgages, auto, and student loans are rising for all age groups, including high-income earners — a very unusual and alarming sign.
• A record 13% of student loans are now seriously delinquent — this isn't just a student debt crisis, it's a wider default contagion.
• High-income borrowers now showing 20% rise in credit stress → This confirms even the top of the consumption pyramid is under strain.

 This is exactly what we saw pre-2008. Consumer strain precedes economic collapse.

Debt Overload: The Silent Killer

• Household debt = $18.4 trillion, up $7T in 10 years
• Auto: $1.7T | Credit Card: $1.2T | Student: $1.6T | Mortgage: $12.9T
• Debt-to-disposable income = 82%, dangerously high when income growth is stagnant
• Interest cost spikes = increased default risk

 The U.S. is operating with 2006-07 style leverage, but without the earnings or wage growth to support it. On the other hand, the global corporate investment-grade bond spreads dropped to 0.79 percentage points, the lowest since July 2007, just before the Great Financial Crisis.

Now, come what might, making you feel proud is nothing but the beginning of the fall. In what may appear to be a fiscal windfall on the surface, U.S. federal tariff revenue has exploded to an all-time high of $29.6 billion in July, putting the country on track for a staggering $310 billion in annualised collections, more than three times higher than last year. But this isn’t a victory lap for Washington. These record-breaking revenues aren't coming from foreign adversaries; they're being pulled directly from the wallets of American consumers and businesses.

Very recently, Trump was marking India as a dead economy. I am guessing how long this So far so good concept will go on.