Monday, February 21, 2011

STOCK PICKS@DIWALI.


Dear All,

These are the stock picks of mine where one will find mixed portfolio of mid-caps and large caps. The pure large cap will come to you by this week. But if one desires to rake little risk and but take huge potentiality of the upward growth of these companies in the time frame of Diwali then invest in them.T he price at which one will invest will come to you very soon.Infact i  did not provide the prices since i wanted you to have some homework at your end to find out and discuss are these picks of mine are worthwhile.

I have kept one thing in my mind when selecting the stock picks is that these companies have an immense potentiality to move new heights in the coming decade. The companies are well running in this highly expensive (INFLATION) competitive market. The companies have immense growth and fund capabilities with well established operating margins and Balance sheet. They have adequate cost control in comparison to its peers. So check out and discuss and work on the home work. Very Soon the price of buy levels will come up with varying sensex levels.

1.    Thermax Ltd.
2.    Godrej Consumer Products Ltd
3.    Polaris Software
4.    GAIL India
5.    Bharti Airtel 
6.    Reliance
7.    GVK Power and Infrastructure Ltd
8.    GMR Group----
9.    Eros International Media
10.  IL&FS Transportation Networks (IndiaLtd (ITNL)
11.  IRB Infrastructure Developers (IRB Infra) 
12.  Mahindra & Mahindra.
13.  Maruti

 HAPPY INVESTING FOR CASH MARKET AND NOT FOR FUTURES.

Saturday, February 5, 2011

CHINA FOGETS EUROPEAN HUMILATION-JOINS FOR A NEW START.

After the Debacle:
Europe has covered the attention of the financial media in the past 6 months. One after the other the financial crisis have triggered fear and fought among the investors across the globe. The stock markets around the world were rattled and sleeps of the European nations went for a vacation due to rising unemployment. The government debt of Europe swelled like an Elephantiasis leg. But with the blessings of Greek Gods and other European Nations God the Europe was able to come out of the drowning session.

The Debt of European nations is quite big and is half of the US deficit. Ireland, Greece and Portugal consist of euro 620 billion. This is 6.8% of the European GDP. China, Japan, and Russia bought Spanish Bonds.

Europe Opened the Gates:
Europe have decide to double the investments into Renewable Energy to the tune of euro 70 billion. Resources are being shifted across Europe to expedite the work of renewable energy. European leaders launched Friday a trillion-euro bid to slash dependency on Middle East oil and Russian gas, clearing the way to place nuclear power at the centre of 21st century needs.

Germany Hungary and Sweden have been able to meet their 2010 targets for electricity and transport. Hence one can claim the business and development is happening in some parts of Europe. China is doing massive expansion and investment activity in Europe. China is busy in opening up new branches. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., this month is opening branches in Paris, Brussels, Amsterdam, Milan and Madrid

Scouting for new business deals and exploring every business opportunity. Chinese banks are gearing up for final lap of closing deals of acquisition of European banks. One of the prime reasons for China to come forward to do investment is that its kitty bag has swollen to $ 2.85 trillion, where as 60% of the treasuries belong to US. China is shifting its assets to other nations to diversify and reduce the risk of US exposure. Today Chinese companies are extending beyond their own territory of business limitations. They are actively scouting for investments avenues from India to US. The EU and China are working on a possible treaty to increase bilateral investment and end trade disputes.

Chinese leaders have won praise from European officials for their pledges to support and invest in struggling euro-zone countries such as Greece, Portugal and Spain. Beijing is already a major investor in Greece and in talks with Ireland for investment opportunities. China has already bought nearly 50 billion of Spain's government debt; Chinese Vice Premier Li Keqiang has just concluded a visit to Spain, Germany and Britain with over 100 prominent Chinese businessmen.

So till now the journey of trade cooperation seems to be taking new shape I the New Decade of International Trade.

China have triggered the journey of the new decade with some dramatic policies and steps where by the year of 2020 china will be in such a place where every nation will sets it as a Benchmark. China is focusing on up gradation of every aspect of its economy to become unbeatable. If we look at the R&D part of investments being adopted by china US and Japan we find clearly china is way ahead and trying to move beyond any tracing point.

China has increased R&D investment by 10% each year for the last 10 years, sustaining this rapid growth rate through the global recession. Battelle estimates that China will invest $154 billion in R&D in 2011, passing Japan's $144 billion. If we going with the ranking position of R&D investments being made in past and will be made in future we find quite surprising facts and figures.

The United States is now sixth place in R&D investment as a percentage of GDP, falling behind nations like Japan, South Korea, and Israel. R&D investments in emerging economies like China, Brazil and India are expanding at rates far higher than the United States. China, for instance, will increase its share of global R&D from 11% in 2009 to 13%in 2011.China wants to take advantage of the struggling economies since they will not be able to make a higher allocation for R&D activities. There are budget cut backs by the struggling economies and hence allocation to R&D will be hit. China wants to capitalize over here. In other words every nation will try to play the same act.

China Overseas Finance Dragon.
China non bond investments had taken new shapes and growth in 2010.Last year we find that there was a growth of 12% in non- bond investments. If we look at the below chart we don’t have to waist time for reading further lines. It will save my time and your time to read such long description. In the below chart you will find country specific non bond investments being made by China in 2010.

The above chart makes one thing clear that there was a flood of money being lined up behind the doors of China which was realized through non bond avenues to reap the ROI. In order to make my readers more clear about the historical facts about which sector attracted how much I would bring you.
Chinese outward investment is steadily and unavoidably expanding and one must feel jealous about this country and its economic factors.

Friday, February 4, 2011

CHINA COMES TO RESCUE

Last year the financial media was busy in covering the growth strategies and the asset bubbles being spooked by the Chinese government over the various asset classes. The world markets was suspecting another round asset bubble burst out which will bring out the Recession dinosaur .But thanks to the government of the china that they identified this growth and acted well before they assets were going to burst out the recession dinosaur was about to take to birth. This article will try to bring out the invisible investments being made by china despite being awarded with “Manipulated Mark”.

CHINA THE STRATEGIST

China is well known for its strategic growth- strategies being developed during 2009 when it torn out the recession skin from the Asian markets. The Indian market should thank China for showing the early recovery way out the recession dark nights. In 2010 china was under the top ladder of currency manipulation and we well portrayed as a villain for destroying domestic markets of the world. But looking in a different angle we find out that china currency was never undervalued or manipulated. In fact other currencies were overvalued leading the CPI to increase in those countries. China has a huge mass of population where the present living cost is still unbearable for the Chinese citizens living in china. Looking at the tall skyscrapers its is quite hard to find out the real living cost of China. Over here I would like to quote from William Shakespeare Gilded tombs do worms enfold.

CHINA COMES TO RESCUE:

With global currency imbalances due to large imbalanced fiscal debts among the various nations have resulted volatile currency valuations. This further has spooked commodity prices to rise up and eradicate the middle class living from the earth. The middle class is the worst suffers of the rising commodity prices resulting cut backs on normal living standards. The interest rates GOD have been awakened to control the devil of Inflation. The blessing so the GOD of Interest rates is that cost of borrowing is going up and resulting further increase in the cost of production and commodity prices.

India has started feeling the heat of rising cost of interest rate in the winter season. These heats have forced the Indian corporate to look for cheap overseas funds. Over here again China have come for the rescue. Yes China the much debated, the much adducted economic country of the world.

Currently India needs 100000 megawatt power projects by 2017.For this alone the Indian banks have raised their hands helplessly that they will not be able to meet the desired projects funding. $45 billion dollars will be required for the power plants equipments alone. India is looking forward to china for investments into Information & Technology sector. India needs around $1.5 trillion investments in Indian infrastructure for the next 10 years to keep the GDP growth around 10%. The ongoing five-year plan called for $500 billion of infrastructure investment. The next, which runs until 2017, will argue for $1 trillion. With India's public debt at over 60% of GDP, and a current account deficit touching 4% hence funding is going to be quite a hard stuff.By the time you read this data you have already found the FDI investments into India have dropped to levels of March 2003.

CHINA DESPITE BEING THE VILLIAN

We find the China who was being blamed in front of the media by the Wall Street heavy weights have silently entered in to joint ventures and corporate tie ups with Chinese investments. You might be shocked but that is the hard core fact that when the bugle of manipulated china was being blown, corporate tie-ups were happening at that point of time. Last year Chinese investments into Us was around the mark of $6billion.A small number but bigger that $100 million in 2005.

China have made investments in US business primarily into manufacturing plants, solar plants, and automotive. Total size of the trade among China and US last year was hanging around to the figure of $400 billion. China is attracted towards US solar sector for investments. Venture capitalist investments in US solar industry was to the tune of $1.67billion, an increase of 18% over the 2009 figure. At home china did an investment of $34billion in solar sector.

According to latest data released by the World Bank, China has extended loans to the tune of $110 billion to the emerging economies. This simply reveals that China is busy in shifting its resources from its own home to other nations. Development Bank and Import & Export Bank of China are the main leaders in the loans to emerging economies.

1377 Chinese companies have found investments avenues and growth areas in North America. The group of the companies primarily consist of small and medium enterprise.495 of this class of corporate have found investments avenues in North American manufacturing where as 14% in hospitality,14% in wholesale market and 13% in financial sector and last but not the least 56% wants to setup distribution channel in Canada.

Now if we look into the mirror of China and US we find from the other angle that is US investments in china is on the upward trend. US is shifting its operation jobs to China low cost based units. Over here I would like to draw the attention of the US government that what steps are being taken to reduce the unemployment. In fact if the manpower doesn’t shifts and only jobs then unemployment in US will be around 10%+ in 2011-2012.Jobs shifting results higher unemployment and burden of government debts.

In a recent report by the American Chamber of Commerce 79% of the business community wants to invest in Beijing alone. Now please explain yourself and ask questions to the US government what makes Dow Jones 11100 mark and what polices are being made in real and true sense to control the unemployment and why US is not having investments opportunities at home. Well when all these questions comes into the mind its time to move further ahead to find some cheese of cross border investments being made by china in my next article.

TURN AROUND BUDGET

Well if India needs funding to the tune of $1.5 trillion the Indian Banking System needs a radical change followed with Foreign banks givens adequate instruments in hands to finance the and meets the demand of $1.5 trillion. Securitisations and credit default swaps followed with insurance industry being allowed to invest more in infrastructure will reduce the burden to a certain mark up. Even FDI investments will not be suffice enough to support. At the same time India needs to solve the problems related to the Indian legal system of Environments, land acquisition, red tape and other infrastructure bottle necks. Since we all know that India is renowned for delay in execution of projects .If these bottlenecks are not removed the fund requirement unofficially will peg around $2.5trillion.Budget 2011 will be a path breaking if the government formulates policies keeping the above factors in mind.2011 Budget can be a “Turn Around Budget” for Indian economy

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