Tuesday, February 20, 2018


We cannot trust on Banking audit, we cannot trust on corporate audit, we cannot trust on Tax audit. Well before I get on the subject I have an interesting perspective to share.  Thanks to those who lobby ed against the ICWAI profession over the last 2 decades and only gave exclusivity to the Chartered Accountants in Corporate India.  Since due their hard work of Lobby ICWAI did not get involved into any such malpractices.  People ask me which product gives highest return. Well my 15 years of knowledge have come to end when I discovered that the fastest way of making million sis not by investing but the other way around. 

Want to make Millions is short time then please form a company, bribe bankers, auditors and credit analyst and take a bank loan and later on default. The PNB matter and prior to this Global Trust Bank and many small other banks which got merged into SBI have shows the true picture of the Indian corruption created by professionals.  The surprising part is that concurrent audit and other metrics have lead to an significant failure of the system where the next phase of economic growth will take hit. Those who have clean books will face the heat of the stringent norms created by the blessings of the defaulters like the recent one. Every company bribes its Chartered Accountants and their network to get credit off take from the banking industry.

We cannot trust on Banking audit, we cannot trust on corporate audit, we cannot trust on Tax audit.  All of them have been ruled over the last 2 decades by the Chartered Accountants only. The biggest scam creators are those people who were in the lobby of all areas depriving the ICWAI profession and giving more strength to the chartered Accountants. Well the proof of the lobby strength was that ICWAI have to fight for every opportunity in financial and accounting segment whereas Chartered Accountants got everything easily without much trouble. Many of the veterans of the lobby have dies or few are just still living with one closed eye. The biggest gift to the lobby people who worked against the ICWAI profession in making their task and journey difficult and depriving them for rights equivalent to Chartered Accountants is that their retirement savings earned hard by lobbying  are no longer safe in the banks where they have parked money.

Cost Accountants have been asking for a long time to get opportunity of full and equivalent rights of Chartered Accountants in the banking industry but nope they were never given. In fact inside lobby was also there in the last 2 decades within the all the segment of getting ICWAI outside of the ambit of banking industry. Cost Accountants presented many papers many memos to different government at different times but a corrupt lobby kept the ICWAI profession just outside the banking industry just like an office bearer sitting outside an office. If full rights were given to the profession about a decade ago then Banking Industry would not have failed so bitterly.

When an economy grows significantly multiple professionals are deployed to keep a tab on the audit aspect of such growth. Well we are always on one side –Chartered Accountants.  Only CA knows everything about banking audit to company audit and many more grey areas. Well if one profession is given so much leeway then corruption, malpractices, internal lobby and many more such things are bound to happen.

ICWAI is also set up under the Act of Parliament then why this profession have been neglected and why did the previous government did not gave full rights to the profession.  Those from all corners were involved in the lobby of depriving the Institute and working in favour of the Chartered Institute should be rewarded as they have pulled down the Indian economic growth images. Surprising part is that Auditors and all financial forensic have cooked the games so beautifully that no one ever came to know about such scams. We are struggling with economic driven NPA at the same time willful defaulters have emerged to be big number. The taxpayer’s money will now be ploughed back by the government from the price hike and revenue hike targets. Fiscal deficit and FRBM management will go for wild toss in the coming years.  The credit off take just began in the last quarter is now way towards sliding down. SME segment will struggle and banks will now be more vigilant to refuse cases for funding. Expansion plans which are of genuine quality will take slowdown and economic growth will be under pressure. It’s not the point who created the NPA under which regime. The point is that the government did not deploy multiple vigilance during the expansion of the economic growth.

Very recently India got the title of improving the ease of doing business but a series of corruptions being opened up, reflects that very soon overseas investors would be skeptical to invest in such corporate corruption driven system.

Thanks to those lobby people who deprived the rights of the ICWAI. In fact they saved us for Nobel cause and its being found that Nobel time has arrived and now the government should give equal rights like Chartered Accountants and give the definition of ICWAI profession the same rights with no tweaking. Since tweaking will create problem for the Indian economy in the coming decades.
The final point is when government will give equal rights to the Cost Accountant profession like Chartred Accountants. Are we waiting for Lehmen Brothers to happen in India.

Saturday, January 27, 2018


Record profits, Record Quarterly performance, record stock markets' price appreciation, record dividend payouts to wealthy shareholders, new tax laws to make the wealthy more richer to richest. Dollar would remain low. Yes low it will be as Trump is focused towards making the richer to richest.  Investment banks, private equity firms, hedge funds, insurance companies, finance companies, and asset management companies are one of the biggest gainers going ahead and also they will be printing more in the long term. DowJones to scale new highs going ahead as quarterly profits increases, buyback of shares increases and over and above when infrastructure spending boost will be given.

Tax rate cut down benefits passed to rich is clear but dollar will remain low.  Dollar low benefit goes to the US multinational corporations' offshore profits which are maximized when these profits are   being converted in local currencies back to the dollar, before they repatriate those profits back to the United States at the new lower Trump tax rates (12 percent instead of 35 percent repatriation tax rate) and, even more lucratively, when they pay no taxes on offshore profits virtually at all starting 2019. The richer will become richest many folds in the long run.

Trump trade war fight is only to increase its own export in those countries. Trade deficits etc are just numbers game to be narrowed in the long run. The Trump private friends circle is similar to what precipitated the 2008 financial crisis prime players. Investment banks such as Lehman, Bear Stearns, insurance giant AIG, and GE Credit were the prime players during that time and now we are waiting for new sets of names to emerge going in the long term. The US FED and its upcoming vacancies will be all Trump people followed with major planning of new draft policies being designed with the help of the top close business friends of Trump. Real Estate Prices will grow and another boom phase will be soon joining the US markets. The bankers market and financial business will grow. Leveraged deals will pick up as funding will increase from the government spending on infrastructure space.

Low dollar will boost the climate for the richest Americans to treble their earnings by the next 3 years. Repatriate of cash would make them grow their wealth as domestic interest rates earnings and buyback of shares would push the US capital market to new highs. Hence private equity, hedge funds, insurance companies, finance companies, and asset management companies would grow up more. Leveraged deals and over exposed trade activities is about to begin.

Trump friends would rule at the Treasury, in the White House, at the New York Fed, and in a majority of the Fed governorship. Infrastructure would push up the inflation which will be taken as a positive vibe by the economy but actually common people of US will be squeezed and richer will become richest. Dollar game is to make export cheaper and also to make the currency gains to be more lucrative.

Moral of the story is that bubble is in the process of being made and also bankers would make good bonuses in the long term as US FED and US banking gets more into the drawing room of Trump. The debate is how much capital will fly out and how much would come back into emerging countries. The production cost debate of US is that it’s costly to produce in US compared to other economies like India and other Asian countries is no longer valid now. Artificial intelligence and 3d manufacturing has changed the landscape of the US manufacturing which would reduce its cost of production compared to the emerging economies. 

This is the key area where they will pull back the capital and invest but not aggressively in US as they wait for supportive policies from Trump.  The flight of capital will be used as a tool to blackmail and renegotiate higher levels of export form US within other countries. Trump strategies of US economic growth is all linked with his friends to be made more cash rich. Another recession after 8 years is in the making.

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