Tuesday, January 31, 2017


In my last article I wrote that US GDP growth would be declining and now its becoming more prominent. US Fed will find it quite difficult to raise interest rates and the whole of US economy will be fighting to get inflation and GDP growth. Skilled manpower is going to exit and also the future propensity of the skilled worker growth and supply to US will now hardly grow. The new immigration laws and other indicative laws create a reverse affect in the long term for the US economy. Skilled manpower will now look for other countries like Australia, Canada and New Zealand. These countries will find substantial growth momentum in their economies as GDP growth will be driven by extensive supply of skilled and knowledgeable manpower. Human capital is a big asset for any economy to grow. Don’t forget the Silicon Valley growth was partially driven by many Indians who developed things like google and email. In an research it has been found that 1% increase in the population of immigrant college graduates increased overall patents per capita by 9-18%.

On the other hand Trumppolicynomics is now target towards overseas students who are getting into his country for higher education. Revoking of OPT extension by Trump will create immense opportunity for other countries and immense loss to the US economy. Optional Practical Training (OPT) for science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) students could benefit immigrant-friendly nations. OPT allows foreign STEM students to extend their stay in the US after completion of studies for 6-12 months under student visa. Foreign students are found to make use of OPT to either look for jobs or apply for further education. Now  under Trumplociynomics this is going to be revoked.

International students pumped $35 billion into the country’s economy in 2015, according to the US Department of Commerce. This policy will lead to loss of this revenue to the US economy. Now coming to skilled manpower supply within US from its own citizens its being found that US don’t have much skilled manpower. A report conducted by the OECD and commissioned by the U.S. Department of Education  has found that a staggering 36 million adults in the U.S. are “low-skilled. Well the number is just 1 year old. So lack of skilled manpower and lack of skill within US economy will only drag the GDP growth. On the other hand countries like India, China Australia, Canada and New Zealand will find stupendous growth within its economy in the coming days. I wrote last time and this time also I am repeating again US is creating a opportunity for different countries to come together and rework on new trade and investment opportunities.  Indian students studying in the US which has been on the rise by about 25 per cent to over 165,000 during academic year 2015-16, as per the 2016 Open Doors Report on International Educational Exchange. This is now going to get flooded backs either to India or will enter into some different economies. Different economies should now come up with friendly education norms and quality so as to attract these $35 billion revenues from the US to their own country.

Hence US stock market might be scaling us which has always being a fool’s paradise but it seems now that US economy in the long term will face much slower growth. Getting more jobs within US is not possible and even if it’s possible Research and Development will take a massive hit for the US economy in the long term due to lack of quality manpower.

Mathematics, Science is vital things for the R&D to grow within any economy. The 2015 Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA, study is the latest to document that American students are under performing their peers in several Asian nations. In math, the U.S. average score was 470, below the international average of 490. Average scores ranged from 564 in Singapore to 328 in the Dominican Republic. In science, the U.S. average score was 496, about the same as the international average of 493. Average scores ranged from 556 in Singapore to 332 in the Dominican Republic. This reveals that in the long term with new policies of Trump will lead US economy to collapse and also its creating new opportunity for the other economies to grow.

If you talk to any Silicon Valley person you will find that they don’t get skilled manpower for Innovation. We all know that the next level of Industrial revolution is due to Innovation and the same IS ONLY DRIVEN BY SKILLED MANPOWER very well knowledgeable in Science and Mathematics. On the other hand many leave the field for other pursuits like finance and law — which sometimes pay higher wages.  More than 25% of practicing U.S. scientists are immigrants, up from 7% in 1960. Well all is well written well done if other economies gets into their respective segments to get  pie of the $35 billion US education market driven by overseas students.

Sunday, January 29, 2017

Trumppolicynomic.....Strategy for getting Lucrative business

You voted you made him win and now its time to get out of the country. This is the 1st step of de-globalization and told long back that this will happen. In my last article I wrote http://www.ianalysis.co.in/2017/01/trump-creates-opportunity-for-other.html  it’s time for other countries to come together and create new trade agreements and enough fooling has been made by US to get every country fight against each other. This is one of the easiest ways to kill jobs for the immigrants and create jobs for US citizens. I find this being used as tool to get investments  and get hold of natural resources in these countries from where immigration restrictions have been imposed.
We know that Iran, Libya and Iraq needs huge investments for its crude oil production. Now US will get a bagful of opportunity at very low price to invest simply through this restriction policy. These are all the strategy for making the profits double and also negotiate at dearth cheap price for the US companies. Natural resources is all what US have ruled ,demanded and dream.

Trade war and currency war will come up and I am confident enough that if Trumppolicynomics goes on like this then very soon we will witness that those countries who hold Dollar as Treasury and reserves will start  dumping dollar and very soon will replace that currency from an international trade currency. SWF will find redemption pressure due to this US policies.  

Well that seems catastrophic for the global economy but that should be ideal strategy to fight against these Trumppolicynomics. Other countries will be Banning the export and sales of goods through online way can create pressure on the US economics. Trump has forgotten that even jobs and manufacturing base is created in US who will buy them since after a certain level US consumers will stop buying the same goods according to the theory of the Marginal Economic Policy.

The joke of the century is that 1st US created the war with in these countries Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Surprisingly that he did not ban immigrants and refugees from countries like  Afghanistan, Malaysia, Pakistan, Oman, Tunisia and Turkey were Muslim-majority. US created many wars , devasted the citizens life and suddenly imposed a restriction. There was no requirement of creating several wars in the last 3 decades in the Muslim countries. Just to control the natural resources they created devastation. Its time for all the countries across the globe to understand and come united to create new trade policies excluding US economy.

In Libya we all know that after the war suddenly the crude production went up by 40% which was mainly driven by US companies. U.S. companies had historically played a major role in Libya's oil development. The Oasis Group — a consortium of ConocoPhillips, Marathon Oil and Hess — and Occidental Petroleum were particularly prominent. Exxon, Chevron and Italy's state-run Eni were also major players. 

Those he is calling as immigrants and refugees, these citizens have created by US only over the last 3 decades or more. US created war and created devastation made these people and families to leave their own country and now suddenly he asks all of them to get out.

Indians be prepared since a similar calling might come up as US is more focused towards creating jobs an hence well know that INDIANS are more capable and more cheap to their labour cost hence we are at stake. Its well clear that Truppolicynomics  will create more disruption for other countries.

We will witness restrictions on trade and operations and hence this will create repulsive actions across the segments. A flood of green card holders will come back to other countries which will create pressure on the domestic economies and hence it will be a terrible problem. Remember that when these families comes back to their own country or any other place it will create a sudden spike in social cost and economic imbalances in the long run. 

Wednesday, January 25, 2017


I am almost dead but before my death I want to save others. The ignorance of action against the matter raises the point that Health Authorities are Blind and deaf and they are already bribed to keep their mouth shut. . No action has been taken by the local government neither by any health authority of Federation at any level in India. If an 18-month infant dies let him die due to the negligence and what it matters to the people and health authorities across the globe. My son story is over but I want to save others from this hospital and local government have a strong bonding with them.
Time has come that we need to raise voice and save many life from getting into death bed. Avighna Saha suffered a cardiac arrest after he was allegedly administered potassium chloride injection through intravenous fluid (IV) by a nurse at Park Clinic on September 29. Irresponsible hospital authority its doctors and nurses who are just illiterate and have somehow cleared the examination of nursing have lead to this fatal death of the child.
 I request World Health Organization and Prime Minister Narendra Modi to take steps about the huge racket of medical negligence happening and prevailing in Kolkata. People are scared and local government hardly takes nay steps for the same. The type of clinics/hospitals needs to be shut   so as clear message goes to the people in this profession.
Avighna was admitted to the clinic on September 28 with mild dehydration with symptoms of vomiting. According to medical experts, concentrated potassium chloride can be fatal if it is injected. The parents have already filed an FIR with the police but they are being threatened by the clinic and hospital goons for keeping quite on the issue. No action has been taken by the local government neither by any health authority of Federation at any level in India. The point is that he is a ordinary person and not a celebrity child otherwise things should have been different. Immediately its licensee of operation should be seized ad we need you support for the same. We are going ahead with Pan India protest for the same so that a high level red alert is being drawn for the people in Kolkata and across India.  The ignorance of action against the matter raises the point that Health Authorities are Blind and deaf and they are already bribed to keep their mouth shut. The hospital address is
Contact Details
Park Clinic
4, Gorky Terrace, Kolkata - 700 017, INDIA
(On AJC Bose Rd, between Camac Street and Minto Park)
Phone: (+9133) / (033) 2280-1986 / 87,
2281-7600 / 64, 2283-7470 / 73, 2865-0307
Fax: (+9133) / (033) 2280-1807
For doctors' appointments: (033) 64537818
(Monday to Saturday 9 am to 5 pm)

E-Mail: info@parkclinickolkata.in
Web: www.parkclinickolkata.in
Avighna is now undergoing treatment at Institute of Neuro Science under Dr Hrishikesh Kumar for the past two months. The hospital concocted a story that the child became hypoxic because of aspiration during feeding. Hospital Authorities tried to suppress the incident when we drew the attention of the concerned doctor about negligence in treatment. Parents of an 80% brain dead one-and-half year’s old baby boy, who blame the condition on medical negligence.

Tuesday, January 24, 2017


He is creating opportunities for other countries who have been in war in several segments to come together and create new growth for a new global economy excluding US.

He is aggressive in his policy reforms and he has already acted on them. Trump revoked the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. The TPP, a giant and semi-secret 12-member free-trade agreement advocated by the Obama administration, aimed to deepen economic ties between the U.S. and 11 other Pacific Rim nations, cut taxes and foster trade to boost economic growth in the process.  Now quickly measure the consequences of withdrawing this trade pact.  Trade agreements with these member states are now cancelled which  are: Japan - the only country to have already ratified the pact - Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, Brunei, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, Mexico, Chile and Peru. Hence GDP of these economies and the current states of trade and investments comes to an halt and also the relation with these states come to an bitter level. According to Trump cancellation of this agreement will create job opportunities for the US citizens.

This agreement saved US position from China’s penetration within these economies.  The 12 countries involved have a collective population of about 800 million - almost double that of the European Union's single market. The 12-nation would-be bloc is already responsible for 40% of world trade. Many agricultural and industrial products were a part of the trade act. In all, some 18,000 tariffs were included. Industries like Automobile, Pharma, Agri products and Tech firms were covered under the trade act.

 Breaking these trade pacts will create more bonding within different countries to stand and unite against US economy in the near future. Its being found that Trump does not understand geo politics. Soon Trump will be looking towrads NAFTA. Signed into law in 1994 by former President Bill Clinton, NAFTA is a trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico. It essentially eliminates almost all tariffs between the three nations, allowing the flow of goods and supplies across borders. Well now its well clear that Trump has already began breaking trade pacts and this should be taken as an opportunity for countries like India and China to promote and penetrate with new trade agreements with these countries.

Saturday, January 21, 2017


Donald Trump becomes and takes Oath as the President of United States of America. But by the time he joined he has already passed policy which will cost the citizens of America very soon.  His oath and his speeches of America First, made in America , Hire a American will create problem for his own citizens. Trump regime has made it more expensive for every single American to buy a home, by rolling back the Obama Administration’s reduction in monthly mortgage insurance premiums. Trump’s choice will cost the average new home buyer about $45 a month and applies to all insured home-buyers seeking a mortgage to buy a home which is insured by the Housing and Urban Development.  Trade wars are inevitable but its more going to be funding for another WAR which has always been a best way for US economy to create jobs. Further its being found that his attitude of unpredictable will create more problems for his own people.

He will create jobs but at the cost of others and even at the cost of mother earth. Don’t be surprised if you find Crude Drilling begins at Artic Ocean. His latest testimony creates immense curiosity for the same. According to the Whitehouse website states that President Trump is committed to eliminating harmful and unnecessary policies such as the Climate Action Plan and the Waters of the U.S. rule. Lifting these restrictions will greatly help American workers, increasing wages by more than $30 billion over the next 7 years. 

The Trump Administration will embrace the shale oil and gas revolution to bring jobs and prosperity to millions of Americans. We must take advantage of the estimated $50 trillion in untapped shale, oil, and natural gas reserves, especially those on federal lands that the American people own. President Trump is committed to achieving energy independence from the OPEC cartel and any nations hostile to our interests. Hence get ready for low crude prices again and all the speculations of the same will die soon. If US pumps more crude despite of taking hit at its own pocket the SWF funds will witness massive outflows in the coming years as the owners of the funds will be back to 2015 era of $25/barrel of crude.

Defense contractors and arms manufacturers will make billion now. Social security is far less important matter since they way he is going to take the steps towards the global economy asset classes are at a risky juncture. Recession definition might be rewritten and investments in the global climate will be tough now. ROI will be challenge and crating alpha is beyond impossible. Volatility of the various asset classes across the globe will rule the markets.  Global investors might get great opportunity to create wealth but have to wait in sidelines for new heights of lows.

Thursday, January 19, 2017


The world anxiously waits for Trump economies to rule US and the global trade pacts from 20th January 2017. But it’s being found that the current situation of US economy linked with the US Fed rate hike which is being taken as a sign for growth for the US economy is also under huge question mark.

Every time the ISM data is being taken into account while reflecting that US business activity have improved supporting a US Fed rate hike. Well the data speaks itself that business activity is well far weak if compared to 2014 or 2013 data. One year comparison of MoM comparison is not enough to understand how the economic business activity is growing. In fact data reflects that every time during November and January period the ISM tends to be on a higher side and even the current data of November is way below the historical rates over the last 2 to 3 years. Yes you don’t need to get back to 10 years data. This reflects that US investors are more on cautious in 2016 and the seasonal jump in ISM is old wine in new bottle. Manufacturing is very much slow in US in 2016 if compared to the rest of years figures.  Unemployment numbers have been always under doubt and it seems that with technology up gradation and more young manpower join the industries across the US is creating a hide and seek game for the unemployment numbers to understand. So US Fed rate hike in 2017 might create problem followed with Trump economics. Trump economics will create problem for the US business activity   since any rough policy actions will damage US companies and will make their own products to be less competitive to the global economy.

Recently Trump is attacking the Chinese trade pacts but what he fails to understand the intricacies of the global trade with US and the rest of the country. China recently have been treated with harsh words by Trump but he must know that china hold 60% of the US treasury and the emerging economies are a significant contributor to the QE bond buying of US which was run after 2008 recession. It could be understood that china is very clear that if its trade deals are damaged it well sell the treasury which will create a plunge for the dollar in the long term. According to the recent data of US Treasury Japan has taken over china in terms of its treasury holding and China is shedding its treasury holding to support in Yuan. At the end of October, Japan held $1.13 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to the U.S. Treasury, topping China's holdings, which totaled $1.12 trillion its smallest helping of U.S. debt since 2010.

2ndly china hold much of the real estate of US and Europe. They are the actual buyers of the US property market.  In the first half of 2016, Chinese buyers snapped up an estimated $15 billion in overseas real estate, with the U.S. a top destination.  In all, overseas purchases by Chinese companies reached $146 billion in the first 10 months of this year, surpassing last year's record $121 billion, according to data from China's Ministry of Commerce. In terms of trade deals Chinese companies invested a record of US$45.6 billion in the US in 2016, tripling the amount in 2015.

Hence its well clear that any Trump economics damaging Chinese trade could create a worldwide recession since two most powerful economies will come into a trade war. Trump might get the tax rate changed to get the overseas capital to flow back into the country but winding up of operation will cost him to lose the market share which has been built by the ancestors of US economy over the least several decades.

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