U.S SLOWDOWN SERIES 1

The Fed’s operating losses—$77.6 billion in 2024 on top of $114.3 billion in 2023, totaling $224.4 billion since Q4 2022—are largely driven by a mismatch between its income and expenses. The central bank pays interest to commercial banks on reserves and to money market funds through its reverse repo facility, and those costs have ballooned as interest rates have risen. Meanwhile, its income from assets like Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) has taken a hit as it shrinks its balance sheet, a process known as quantitative tightening. Fewer assets mean less interest income, and the income it does get hasn’t kept pace with the higher interest payments it’s shelling out.

The unrealized losses—$1.06 trillion as of 2024—are a different beast. They reflect the market value of the Fed’s bond holdings tanking as yields rise. This doesn’t hit the Fed’s cash flow since it holds these assets to maturity, but it ties up its balance sheet. If the Fed ever needed to sell assets to tighten policy further (say, to fight persistent inflation), those losses would become real, limiting its flexibility. More likely, though, the Fed’s stuck in a holding pattern, relying on higher rates to cool demand while its balance sheet shrinks passively. This could slow its ability to respond to inflationary pressures if they flare up again, especially if markets start doubting its capacity to act decisively.

 This reflects the drop in the market value of the Fed’s bond holdings as yields have spiked. When interest rates go up, the value of existing bonds with lower yields goes down, and the Fed’s massive portfolio has felt that pinch hard. These are "unrealized" because the Fed doesn’t typically sell these assets—it holds them to maturity—but it still highlights the scale of the financial pressure.

The Fed’s losses amplify the economic tightening already underway. Jobs and GDP face downward pressure from high rates, not the losses themselves, but the absence of Fed profits strains government spending, likely boosting Treasury issuance. That lifts yields, reinforcing the cycle. The real wild card is confidence: if markets or the public see the Fed as hobbled—losing billions while inflation lingers—it could spark volatility, hitting everything from stocks to jobs harder. So far, it’s a slow burn, not a crash, but the Fed’s financial bind could make bumpy times bumpier. What’s your hunch on how markets might react if this keeps worsening?