Indian investors' behavioural
aspects have changed a lot, with SIPs becoming stronger and a point of jealousy
for the bear cartel. But Indian equity
is not dependent only on SIPs. Gold prices have corrected, followed by silver
prices, and this correction mode will sustain despite rising inflation and the
risk-reward ratio of returns, since AI is promising more returns in debt and
equity segments. The month of October
was a resetting phase for the Indian midcap and small-cap segment. Nifty 50 is
down approximately 13% year-to-date, while the Sensex has declined around 15%.
The September correction was particularly sharp, with the Nifty falling 6.1%
and closing at 22,620.45. Foreign
portfolio investors have withdrawn about $30 billion from Indian equities since
September 2024, equivalent to 3.2% of their total holdings
Mid-cap and small-cap indices
declined approximately 4% during the October series, while the MSCI Emerging
Markets index registered a 7.4% decline in October. Don’t get into the illusion
of the SIP gross number, since the ground reality is the opposite of the gross
number of Rs.32000/ inflow. In short, redemptions and stoppages are diluting
the number. Then who is investing and buying when FII’s are selling?
DII ownership in NSE-listed
companies reached roughly 19.2% (with total DII holdings surging past ₹71.76
lakh crore), overtaking foreign institutional holdings for the first time in
decades. This DII definition is not SIP.
As of 30 September 2026, Indian
mutual funds held approximately ₹1.83 lakh crore in cash, according to ACE MF
data. This was only about ₹87 crore higher than August’s ₹1.82 lakh crore, but
the cash allocation rose to 3.98% of total assets from 3.80% in August.
The insurance industry also has
equity investments, and as per the latest data available from Jan to June 2026,
the inflow amount was approx. Rs 46,000 cr. Together, insurers and the National
Pension System invested a record ₹88,852 crore in equities during H1
2026, up 19.4% from July–December 2025. This means insurers accounted for
roughly 52% of that combined insurance-plus-NPS equity deployment in the
first half of 2026. 10.57% of EPFO’s
own portfolio as of 31 December 2025. This ratio used to be less than 7% and
9%, but it has grown significantly in the last 2 years. On the other hand, EPFO
is at 15% of investible funds.
PMS and AIF have another huge
inflow of funds into the capital market. India’s PMS industry is about ₹44.35
lakh crore in assets under management (AUM) as of 31 August 2026, while the
AIF industry had cumulative commitments of ₹17.53 lakh crore and had
raised ₹7.59 lakh crore as of 30 June 2026.
The DIIs chain is much stronger
and has multiple sources of Investing.
Conclusion:
Based on the 25-year historical data presented, November has generated an average Nifty return of approximately 2.5%, with positive returns in 60% of the years. December has historically performed even better, delivering an average return of 2.6%, with positive returns in 68% of the years. This makes November and December historically favourable months for Indian equities. But this may not happen since Indians will prefer buying Gold and silver rather than investing in equities, as prices have come down significantly. This is also the best opportunity to invest in equities and quality stocks. The market will witness new highs, but before that we will witness stock-specific growth and momentum, where active fund management will play a huge role. Don’t forget that current Nifty valuations have corrected to approximately 16.4 times forward earnings, whereas Nifty 500 broad-market valuations have corrected, with trailing P/E around 21x. The next phase of the Indian equity market will be determined not merely by how much valuations have corrected, but by how quickly earnings, liquidity and global confidence recover.


0 Comments:
Post a Comment