From Begging to Blaming: The American U-Turn

A new flashpoint in the global energy order is emerging—not in the Middle East or the South China Sea—but at the junction of India’s strategic oil trade with Russia and Washington’s growing frustration over the same. With the U.S. recently imposing an additional 25% tariff on certain Indian exports, bringing the total tariff burden to 50%, the issue isn’t just economic—it’s political and deeply strategic. It's not the crude import that pinches the U.S for buying made in India from Russia. It’s the defence that is larger than oil.

An Enduring Defence Backbone: From MiGs to S-400s

India’s military capability owes much to its historic defence relationship with Russia. This partnership is not just deep—it’s foundational. The Indian Air Force's backbone for decades was the MiG series, especially the MiG-21, which formed the core of India’s aerial power during multiple wars. The present-day collaboration has evolved into cutting-edge joint ventures such as the BrahMos supersonic cruise missile, a global benchmark in missile technology and a symbol of Indo-Russian co-development success. Defence is one of America's last profitable exports. Whether it’s arms to Ukraine, weapon systems to Europe, or F-35s to the Middle East, the military-industrial complex is keeping American factories alive.

Further anchoring India’s defence shield is the INS Vikramaditya, a Russian-origin aircraft carrier that strengthens India's naval presence in the Indian Ocean. The induction of the S-400 Triumf air defence system further elevates India’s ability to thwart modern aerial threats, outpacing even several NATO nations in terms of defence sophistication. Unlike many Western deals, the Indo-Russian defence pipeline is not hindered by conditionalities or political arm-twisting. It’s built on mutual trust and strategic convergence.

Nuclear, Energy, and Space: Pillars of Strategic Autonomy

The Kudankulam nuclear power plant, constructed with Russian assistance, is a beacon of India’s transition to clean and sustainable energy. As one of India’s largest nuclear facilities, Kudankulam doesn’t just power millions of homes—it powers strategic energy independence.

Russia is also a critical pillar in India's oil and gas diversification strategy. With over 1.7 million barrels of crude oil imported per day, Russia has emerged as India’s largest oil supplier, offering both affordability and supply reliability—two non-negotiables for a rapidly expanding economy. The natural gas and LNG collaboration is also expanding, ensuring India isn't vulnerable to OPEC pricing shocks or Western supply disruptions. Let’s be clear: when India imports 1.7 million barrels per day of discounted Russian crude — bypassing Western-dominated pricing systems — it’s not just a loss of control for the U.S., it’s a threat to dollar supremacy. Oil trade is dollar-denominated by design, giving Washington unmatched control over global finance.

But India (like China and others) has increasingly settled oil purchases in non-dollar currencies. This threatens not only U.S. control over global trade, but also its ability to fund its deficits by exporting inflation to the rest of the world.

On the space front, Russia was the first to help India put a man into space. Today, both nations are exploring next-gen space tech, satellite launches, and even lunar missions. This partnership goes beyond rockets—it’s about enabling India’s technological leap in frontier sectors.

Far East and Eurasian Corridors: India’s Strategic Trade Reorientation

India’s investment in Russia’s Far East, particularly in sectors like mining, logistics, and infrastructure, is transforming a once-ignored region into a geopolitical bridge. This ties directly into the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)—a multimodal trade route connecting India, Russia, Central Asia, Iran, and Europe.

The INSTC drastically reduces shipment times and costs, allowing Indian goods to reach Europe via Iran and Russia in under 20 days—compared to 45+ days via the Suez Canal. It's not just about trade; it’s a recalibration of global commerce, reducing dependency on volatile maritime chokepoints and Western-dominated routes.

India’s Sovereign Diplomacy in a Multipolar World

The West's discomfort with India’s Russia ties is understandable—but misplaced. India is not choosing sides; it is choosing sovereign strategic autonomy. It has deep defence ties with the U.S., QUAD alignment with Japan and Australia, and economic engagements with Europe—but its Russia relationship stands apart for one simple reason: consistency without coercion.

Where the West imposes sanctions and conditions, Russia offers co-development, co-investment, and co-innovation.

From Begging to Blaming: The American U-Turn

The irony is hard to miss. Former U.S. President Joe Biden, at the peak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, had urged India to continue importing Russian oil to prevent global crude prices from spiralling out of control. At the time, India’s imports from Russia were minimal, hovering in the low single digits. Fast forward to today, India now imports 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd) from Russia—a whopping 35% of its total oil imports—while Russia ships 3.35 million bpd globally. India's share is now the largest among Russian crude buyers, even surpassing China’s 1.1 million bpd.

This has turned India into a centrepiece of Russia’s wartime oil economy, indirectly undermining Western sanctions designed to financially isolate Moscow. Washington's narrative has flipped: from economic cooperation to strategic confrontation.

Tariffs as Weapons: America’s Economic Strike

The U.S. imposition of additional tariffs is less about trade and more about pressure. By accusing India of "fuelling the Russian war machine," the U.S. is attempting to diplomatically and economically corner India into choosing sides. But this is not just about Russia—it’s also about America reasserting its control over the global oil order and punishing what it sees as defiance.

Yet, this move comes at a cost. India has maintained a sovereign, pragmatic foreign policy—balancing energy security with global diplomacy. And in a world where Western oil giants like ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni S.p.A. previously profited from 1 million bpd via the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)—Russia’s potential retaliation by shutting down CPC exports could send shockwaves through global oil markets.

Russia’s Oil Weapon: CPC Shutdown a Looming Threat

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium, carrying Western crude from Kazakhstan to Black Sea ports, represents a vital artery for global oil supply. If Russia retaliates by halting CPC operations, nearly 1 million bpd of Western oil trade could be frozen, adding upward pressure on global crude prices and tightening the oil market in the West.

For India, this would not be an immediate crisis. With a direct pipeline of discounted oil from Russia, its refiners remain cushioned from global price volatility. However, it also puts India in a tighter geopolitical spot: viewed increasingly by the West as an enabler of Russia, even as it merely pursues energy affordability and long-term partnerships.

Strategic Stakes for India: Between a Barrel and a Hard Place

India's approach has been non-aligned but strategic. Buying discounted Russian crude has helped it manage inflation, support economic growth, and maintain stable fuel prices for its 1.4 billion citizens. Unlike Europe, which heavily sanctions Russian imports but still imports refined products via third-party routes, India has remained openly transactional and honest about its energy interests.

However, this position now draws penalties. Tariffs from the U.S., pressure from Western allies, and the risk of being caught in a crossfire between economic warfare and realpolitik create an uneasy future.

India must now navigate a complex energy future:

• Should it reduce dependence on Russian oil to appease the West?
• Or continue maximising economic advantage while risking further diplomatic and trade backlash?

The global oil map is changing. And India, once a marginal player in Russia’s energy diplomacy, is now at the very heart of it.

 Russia’s military partnership with India is unrivalled. From MiG-21s to BrahMos missiles & INS Vikramaditya to S-400 air defence systems—this partnership ensures India's defence strength remains unmatched.

NUCLEAR, ENERGY & SPACE Kudankulam nuclear plant = Indo-Russian clean energy success Oil & gas imports fuel India’s booming economy Russia’s role in India's early space missions, and today, both countries are reaching new heights in space exploration & tech

RUSSIA'S FAR EAST India’s investment in Russia’s Far East & the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) are reshaping Eurasian trade, driving growth & connecting new opportunities across borders.  India’s rise as a self-confident, energy-secure, militarily autonomous economy threatens the U.S.'s long-standing playbook of leverage. It’s not just that India is refusing to “pick sides”— it’s that India is writing its own rules.

And that’s what the 50% tariff is trying to stop.

It’s a desperate signal to a rising power: “Play by our rules—or pay.”

But the global message is clear: The age of Western economic coercion is ending, and the new centers of growth — India, ASEAN, Africa, Latin America — won't be bullied into obedience.