Thursday, January 19, 2017

TRUMP ECONOMIS MIGHT SLOWDOWN US ECONOMY

The world anxiously waits for Trump economies to rule US and the global trade pacts from 20th January 2017. But it’s being found that the current situation of US economy linked with the US Fed rate hike which is being taken as a sign for growth for the US economy is also under huge question mark.

Every time the ISM data is being taken into account while reflecting that US business activity have improved supporting a US Fed rate hike. Well the data speaks itself that business activity is well far weak if compared to 2014 or 2013 data. One year comparison of MoM comparison is not enough to understand how the economic business activity is growing. In fact data reflects that every time during November and January period the ISM tends to be on a higher side and even the current data of November is way below the historical rates over the last 2 to 3 years. Yes you don’t need to get back to 10 years data. This reflects that US investors are more on cautious in 2016 and the seasonal jump in ISM is old wine in new bottle. Manufacturing is very much slow in US in 2016 if compared to the rest of years figures.  Unemployment numbers have been always under doubt and it seems that with technology up gradation and more young manpower join the industries across the US is creating a hide and seek game for the unemployment numbers to understand. So US Fed rate hike in 2017 might create problem followed with Trump economics. Trump economics will create problem for the US business activity   since any rough policy actions will damage US companies and will make their own products to be less competitive to the global economy.

Recently Trump is attacking the Chinese trade pacts but what he fails to understand the intricacies of the global trade with US and the rest of the country. China recently have been treated with harsh words by Trump but he must know that china hold 60% of the US treasury and the emerging economies are a significant contributor to the QE bond buying of US which was run after 2008 recession. It could be understood that china is very clear that if its trade deals are damaged it well sell the treasury which will create a plunge for the dollar in the long term. According to the recent data of US Treasury Japan has taken over china in terms of its treasury holding and China is shedding its treasury holding to support in Yuan. At the end of October, Japan held $1.13 trillion of U.S. government debt, according to the U.S. Treasury, topping China's holdings, which totaled $1.12 trillion its smallest helping of U.S. debt since 2010.

2ndly china hold much of the real estate of US and Europe. They are the actual buyers of the US property market.  In the first half of 2016, Chinese buyers snapped up an estimated $15 billion in overseas real estate, with the U.S. a top destination.  In all, overseas purchases by Chinese companies reached $146 billion in the first 10 months of this year, surpassing last year's record $121 billion, according to data from China's Ministry of Commerce. In terms of trade deals Chinese companies invested a record of US$45.6 billion in the US in 2016, tripling the amount in 2015.

Hence its well clear that any Trump economics damaging Chinese trade could create a worldwide recession since two most powerful economies will come into a trade war. Trump might get the tax rate changed to get the overseas capital to flow back into the country but winding up of operation will cost him to lose the market share which has been built by the ancestors of US economy over the least several decades.


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