Wednesday, November 30, 2016

I FEAR EUROPEAN UNION MORE THAN TRUMP

 I don’t fear Trump Policies I fear Europe breaking up.Next year Europe will be doldrums and many states will exit the EU. Thanks to the existing ruling politicians who approved the policy of  refugees being given  shelter to the syrian refugees. They created the birth of social imbalances within the society and after with repeated Blasts in many member states its well clear that Anti Muslim climate will be utilized for the upcoming elections. We witnessed  Brexit and over the next decade many exits will be prominent.  In 2017 we will witness many elections and many referendum. In March, the Netherlands will hold parliamentary elections in which the anti-Islam Freedom Party is set for a tight race against the incumbent center-right government. 

Later, France’s National Front also has a chance at  victory in the presidential election. In Germany, which will have a federal election early in the second half of 2017, the Alternative for Germany (AfD), a new anti-immigration and anti-Islam party, is likely to win its ­ seats in the national parliament. Netherlands, the Freedom are going to be big impact creator for the upcoming elections.

The leading hard-right parties in Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands are explicitly anti-Islam. Immigration policies are bound to affect global economy as terrorism and refugees have created havoc problem which is impossible for any states and any politicians to measure. Trump anti-Muslim and immigration based winning streak has created a huge confidence among the EU and other Global politicians to fight and win in the coming elections.

The problem of refugees has created massive problem for the GDP growth of the EU member states. In Turkey  the scale is staggering. 2.75 million Syrians are registered in Turkey, around 3.5 per cent of the population.  They are now going to depot each day around 3000 refugees to EU. There is no end of the war which was expected and now the sudden spike in refugees increases the social cost too for the struggling austerity based economies.

A quick number glance over the growth  of refugees will clear the doubts. In 2015, over 1.3 million people requested asylum in EU, representing more than double  the number of applicants in 2014. During the first quarter of 2016, the number of persons seeking asylum from non-EU countries in the EU reached 287.100. Since 2012, donor governments and aid organisations have spent around $15 billion on looking after ever increasing numbers of Syrian refugees.  About 10 per cent of that has been contributed by the UK. Overall, Britain is by far the biggest European donor to Syrian refugees in the Middle East. I hope now you got more clarity why Brexit is good for them. Europe costs at least ten times as much as in countries neighboring Syria.  Whereas a budget of $3,000 per refugee in Jordan would provide not just basic food and water but also education and opportunity, this will cost over $30,000 per refugee in Germany or Austria. Individual nations have also compelled  divert funds  outside of their aid programs to assuage the cost of hosting refugees,

Social imbalances ,I have covered this many times and now again I repeat that EU as an whole is getting into deeper problems. Prostitution is creating new historic highs and with girls and boys are being trafficked into the sex trade. In camps and shelters across the region, increasing numbers of girls are being forced into early marriages – some as young as 12 years old.

Immigration and unemployment have been recognized as a strong relation and very soon over the next decade many countries will become stringent in terms of immigration. They might lack skilled manpower but over the next decade they will fill in the gaps. Developing economies will face hurdles of immigration  and its high time to think about the same from now. Currency war will open up and saving the euro will be big challenge.


Budgets of the EU are swelling and they are in deep problem. This is the reason why I am fearful of EU rather than Trump.

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