Monday, December 14, 2015

BOND PANIC ....MIGHT SPILL TO EMERGING MARKETS

US interest rates might move in whatever direction but the prime concern which I might is that the global investors are on the verge of losing their safe investments and this would be worst than equity carnage witnessed during 2008. My deep concern is about the investors who thought those bonds are the safest investments options. Global Mutual Fund companies are witnessing   a massive problem of redemption as investors are cautiously taking out their hard earned money from all investment products. The problem is with the fund managers who are selling the high quality debt paper/bonds to pay the redemption as the low risk high yield papers are defaulting and there are no buyers for the same. The biggest part will be that investors faith on investments will be shaken and many of asset management will have no alternative but to lock in the redemption process as the situation turns into disaster.

The most crucial part is  that the low rating high yield  bonds earlier used to belong to oil segment but now with commodity base companies coming into a recession phase, bonds from these segments are also witnessing massive problems. Very recently Standard & Poor's Ratings Service recently warning that a stunning 50% of energy junk bonds are "distressed," meaning they are at risk of default. Well the tentative number is about $180 billion of debt is distressed. This is the highest level since the end of the Great Recession and much of it is in energy companies. The fall of the commodity prices have created a massive volume of distressed bonds.  
According to S&P around 72% of the bonds in the metals, mining and steel industry are now distressed. The problem of massive defaults and at the same time pressure of redemption is forcing the fund managers to sell the high quality bonds. There are no takers of these distressed bonds. I will not be surprised to find that if there is lock in terms of redemption and few fund houses going for a wild toss. Liquidity crisis is going to spill over across the globe since other overseas investments will be liquidated and also fund of fund investments where complex products have been introduced will be heading for redemption which will spook massive sell off.

Those who are thinking that emerging markets are not going to be so much affected one advice recheck what you have to say. Corporate debt in emerging markets had more than quadrupled in the decade to 2014. The 15 biggest emerging-market bond funds attracted a combined $65.7 billion in net inflows between 2009 and 2014. Institutional investments are the first to press the button of redemption as cost of borrowing will increase in US hence booking profits is the key game. Problem is with the high quality bonds also as their prices are also falling and few of them are getting good prices as the carnage has began. I am pretty cautious on the movement of the debt market  and the spillover of the fire of  high yield high risk bonds to emerging economies.

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