Sunday, June 7, 2015

OPEC EXPECTATION OF PRICE H2 2015...WHAT IS IT?????

The prime reason behind this research is to find out what will change in H2 2015 which has been predicted by the OPEC in its meeting related to crude prices. This research is not like the Big Giants-broking companies of the markets who influence the market and move according to the political instructions. But cant help world only follows the heard even if the herd is lead by idiots. Before that we need to understand many things. Part of the global economy must be waiting for some magic for the recovery of its inflation employment, commodity prices and GDP numbers. Well the magic lies only in a 3rd world war which could only increase all of them. The recent crude decision taken by OPEC shows clearly that they are all set for war against the Western world and western world on the other side have clearly understood that if war funding needs to come down then the middle east needs to be kept under pressure. 

OPEC took its decision based on this thought that they will throw out the western economies out of the crude production but they forgot that they are repeating the same mistake they did several decades ago that by throwing out the British they deprived themselves from technology. The Western economy is way ahead of technology which pushed down the cost of production and makes the companies more profitable despite of prices coming down. But among the cost measures job cuts were made so that they count rejuvenate their production process and investments. Many companies went for 20% to 30% cut down in work force to re balance their books of accounts and investments options. Well ancillary industries job growth percentage increases as production grows. I will discuss this in a broad manner later on. Well the research is to find that how US will react and how the US plans ahead. It’s finding out the connections of the route map of the plans of the US which they will be going ahead after the OPEC decision.

If we look into the history of cost of production of crude we find that according to EIA’s (Energy Information Administration) 2009 report shows the production cost of crude oil was $12 per barrel for the United States and $10 per barrel for the Middle East. But does this means that crude prices will remain low for 2015 and 2016. Well crude prices are currently under the position of having a mixed trend. OPEC decision will have impact on the US shale producers and others. The interesting part to watch out will be that how crude prices travel from where if dollar supports the crude price to climb. Since the whole world might have forgotten that US is under extreme advantageous place in term of crude production and dollar which is the international currency of crude trading.

 US crude is going to be the biggest job creator for the US economy as they have lifted the ban of export. Lifting a 40-year-old U.S. ban on crude exports would create a wide range of jobs in the oil drilling supply chain and broader economy.    This history behind the export ban is that in 1973, the United States imported an average of 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day (million b/d) and 3.0 million b/d of petroleum products. By 2005, crude oil imports had more than tripled to 10.1 million b/d while petroleum product imports had risen to 3.6 million b/d. Reliance on oil and product imports as a percent of total petroleum consumption increased from 36 percent in 1973 to 66 percent in 2005. So now as US is big producer the cost of production and cost of consumption would come down which would lead to some support to the middle class to balance their income –inequality.

Getting deeper into the Job market dependent on crude segment its being found that according to HIS some 394,000 to 859,000 U.S. jobs could be created annually from 2016 to 2030 by lifting the ban. This reveals that US will focus on extensive cost effective methods of cost of production and also it will try to get the support of dollar so that profitability keeps on driving the investments for the crude production. If we drill further we find that only 10 percent of the jobs would be created in actual oil production, while 30 percent would come from the supply chain, and 60 percent would come from the broader economy. This is the key area where the US economy is focusing and if the employment issue is being resolved then US will find much easier ways to increase the interest rates. The biggest boon of the crude export would be that many industries in US will find job growth like oil field trucks, construction, information technology and rail. Many of the jobs would be created in Florida, Washington, New York, Massachusetts, and other states that are not known as oil producers.

Coming to the quality of crude which is being produced and exported we find that most of the increased production in recent years has been in the form of lighter (“sweet”) crude oil.  Light oil sells at premium compared to heavier oil in world markets. This is the key place for making revenue for the US crude players.

Now being a journalist I find that US politics plays a pivotal role behind the crude oil production. This is above economics but within the same subject of political economics. JEB Bush is a strong supporter of drilling oil rigs. The past  shows that George W. Bush’s close ties to Texas and connections with the oil industry which leads  to the future of prediction that crude industry is going to be a  strong foundation for the US economy to pull out of the slowdown.  The Bush administration's ties to oil and gas are as deep as an offshore well. President George W. Bush's family has been running oil companies since 1950. Further my theory that Jeb Bush will be supporting and crude prices would climb and also US will focus extensively on crude production is that according to history of  data compiled by the nonprofit Center for Responsive  George W. Bush and his allies have received more campaign contributions from oil companies than any other administration in history. oil and gas firms donated $1,889,206 to Bush's presidential campaign, making the industry among the top ten special interest contributors to Bush in Election 2000. Individuals connected with the oil industry contributed at least an additional $85,500 to the Bush campaign.

 The Bush Presidential Inaugural Committee received yet another $1 million in contributions from oil and gas firms. The oil and gas industry contributed at least $556,700 to Bush's 1994 and 1998 campaigns for Governor of Texas. Individuals connected with the industry contributed an additional $944,733. Hence how important is the crude production and its support of dollar to increase the price are well clear. 2ndly if the US economy and world economy is being believed that US is helping the developed economies by increasing production well no one does charity in today’s time. Now lest drill further into the history where we all know that the price of oil climbed from January 2 to July 14, 2008, repeatedly setting new price records until it peaked at $147 per barrel. The 2008 big oil profits bring the grand total under the two terms of the Bush administration to $656 billion, which is nearly two-thirds of a trillion dollars. Further the Iraq war and other wars added profitability boost up to the US economy and its corporate. This is the prime reason why I said in the beginning a war should boost the economic growth of US.

Hence it can be concluded that Crude Oil production will be increasing and price is bound to increase in whatever manner since it is linked with US election funding and also politics is an integral part of corporate economy. Just try to remember that what made OPEC to say that things will change in the H2 of 2015.Well it’s the change in number days getting closure to the US elections and also an invisible war might be in the pipelines. US oil rigs will vote them as their president who support them.

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