Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Indian Economy Heading Where?

The global economy is now divided in several issues where the emerging economies are struggling to find growth and on the other side developing economies are looking for raising the interest rates. Indian economy is currently surrounded by political war followed with macro economic factors. The political war between Mr.Rahul Gandhi and Mr. Modi would create lot of betting opportunity which would be visualized on the capital market barometer. In my research I find and continue with my earlier note that sensex and nifty would be on a roller coaster ride in the next 9 months. In between the US economy is in desperate minds to create some historic revival of the economy and that’s too seems to be cooked one or unrealistic economic projection or result based.

The reason behind US QE tapering is that all the bonds are now being bought by China and now China is asking higher premium for the bonds which is not possible for the US economy to provide. Moreover US is threatened by chemical weapons which might become significant threat in the near term. Hence the war is important the world speculators would get significant opportunity for the betting. Inflation devil is another one which is going to spoil the economic growth of emerging economies. China and Brazil both are currently reeling under the slowdown and with a significant threat of asset bubbles. The decade and the year 2013-14 is going to be a roller coaster for the world economy. Indian economy on the other side is focusing more to make itself more attractive to get investments. In fact I find its is more keen to keep the previous hot money intact within its system, that’s why petrol and diesel prices are being hiked.

The hike is also to back up the foreign ratings which India is keenly awaiting. Crude prices on the other side are going to be a key problem for the world economy followed with currency depreciation. Global investors have been making money from all angles which include currency, gold, equity and debt. Global investors have made money well from churning and building short and long position taking simple arithmetic of negative and positive correlated asset behavior. Well the print media might have been fooled to print that global investors lost money but I find they made billions out of millions. Crude gave a fantastic return from the levels of below 90 to above 105 levels. Gold in Indian currency gave returns from 24000 levels to 35000 levels and now again back. Equity markets kept a roller ride and debt market gave Indian investors healthy returns during Jan-May 2013. Altogether I find the next 9 months would be a game of asset based investment strategy where asset allocation would play a sensitive role for printing money.

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