Saturday, November 17, 2012

CHINA DOMESTIC OPPORTUNITIES...ABOUT TO GROW


An Economy which has made a turnaround from the tyrant rules of Mao to an economic engine of the global economy after 2008 debacle. It needs no praise that due to its economic policies China pulled and save the collapse of the 2008 holocaust.2012 has been one of the biggest eventful month for the Chinese economy. The 12th Plan got introduced followed with new FDI policy and now the new President of China.

China has been always being trying to develop and design new vision for the global economy. On my recent study about the economy I find that Chinese private firms are doing huge investments across industries and countries. The proof of the pudding is that the 5 Chinese private firms went to be listed on the Fortune Global 500 ranking that was released in July 2012. Last year, about 45% of China's outbound direct investment in the non-financial sector came from non-State-owned enterprises in china which is a remarkable vision outlook by the private firms in china. One of the prime reasons for increasing the investment appetite is greater percentage of Return on Investments being envisaged and achieved by the Chinese private firms.

In the recent policy declaration china has widen up the gates of FDI inflow. This is well found from the attraction of the inflow in the first six months of the year. China attracted 59.1 billion U.S. dollars in FDI while the U.S. attracted 57.4 billion U.S. dollars, according to the latest Global Investment Trends Monitor. But what made china to be so bold into framing polices to attract the entire inflow of FDI capital into their own economy.

According to the statistics of news release of foreign investment, from January to September 2012, Newly Approved Foreign-invested Enterprises amounted to 18,025, down by 11.67% year on year; and the actual use of foreign investment reached US$83.423 billion, down by 3.76% year on year. Well the numbers can be improved in the next coming years but the prime reason is that china needs huge capital to reduce the gap and build the inbound economic infrastructures of china. At the same time despite of an slowdown in the global economy china’s inflow of FDI was not very dramatic fall, in other words it kept the momentum alive despite of the global turbulence.

China is more focused to improve its domestic trade business rather focusing more on export. It is now more inclined to draw a line of control between inbound growths of its economy along with the turbulent global economic conditions. If we make a quick glance at the achievement being made by the domestic trade policies under the 11th plan we find

• The total retail sales of social consumer goods rose from RMB6.8 trillion in 2005 to RMB15.7 trillion in 2010

• The total sales of means of production rose from RMB14.3 trillion in 2005 to RMB36.1 trillion in 2010

• Added value from wholesale, retail, hotel and catering industries rose from RMB1.8 trillion in 2005 to RMB4.4 trillion in 2010, with an annual average actual growth rate of 14.9%

• Tax revenue from domestic trade increased at an annual average growth rate of 24%, with 102.7 million employees hired in domestic trade in 2010.

The numbers and achievement are well reflected in the Chinese GDP number in the 11th plan. Under the 12th plan it has further extended and broadened the trade opportunities which includes.

• Total retail sales of social consumer goods to achiev a growth of 15% amounting to approximately RMB32 trillion.

• Added value from the wholesale, retail, hotel and catering industries shall exceed RMB7 trillion, with an average annual actual growth rate of 11%

• Employees engaged in domestic trade shall amount to 130 million, including about 100 million employed in urban areas, with an annual growth of more than 5 million employees

• Improving the cycle of commodity flow into the inbound system of china.

• Improving and modernizing the circulation process which invites infrastructure and IT investments.

• Boosting up domestic trade and improving the penetration level of such trade activities.

The above expectation is reasonable and may not sound to be very aggressive but the result being expected to achieve is strong enough for the various states of Chinese economy. The recent drop in FDI inflow in china is not an drop but its well above the level compared with the steep slow down in global economy married with several GDP cut down economy wise by World Bank, IMF, rating agencies etc.

If we make a reverse loom towards Chinese FDI investments in other economies then we will get further clear understanding about the long term visionary outlook by Chinese think tanks.

China's fast-growing direct investment in the United States has created jobs. The study, commissioned by U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, found that Chinese-owned firms in the United States added between 10,000 and 20,000 workers in the past five years. In the first nine months, China's outbound investments jumped nearly 30 percent year-on-year, reaching $52.5 billion. They acquire businesses in the US, Europe, Africa, it's a good timing because prices are low, and they are selective in the ways they make acquisition. Hence china is now holding substantial assets in different economies which give immense power to china to increase its GDP growth in coming years. Since flow of income from these countries will get added up to the GDP of China which will give a balanced and a stable growth to Chinese economy even in times when Chinese economy will be in doldrums. Its nothing but risk mitigation by diversification of assets by china.

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