Tuesday, November 1, 2011

China the Question of Necessity and Not Choices.

All set to go with the EFSF proposal of surviving the Euro banks and economy. But the biggest question within the proposal is who will buy the bonds and how the process will be executed. Europe need bond buyers and its domestic natives don’t have money to buy them hence its needs global buyers. Russia, Brazil and India are against purchasing ESFS bonds. Hence these countries have washed their hands from any burden of buying the bonds.
Japan has made promise of buying the bonds of EFSF giving relief to Klaus Regling, head of the European Financial Stability Facility. Japan till date has purchased around 20% of the debt issued by the continent's bailout fund. China is one of the best friends of Europe in terms of investments. The depth of the friendship is so strong that Europe will issue bonds in Chinese currency. China will invest in EFSF bond buying since china is an leading exporter of Europe and its recent slow down of economic growth will force china to head for investments making rooms for its own shipments.

Its not a Choice but Necessity
Persistent turmoil in US and Europe has slowed the economic growth engine of china. The country's exports grew 17.1 percent year-on-year (all figures on a YoY basis unless otherwise specified) in September, easing significantly from the 24.5 percent growth in August and 20.4 percent in July. In the first nine months, exports to the US rose 14.7 percent, down from 15.1 percent in the first eight months, while exports to the European Union grew 17.4 percent after rising 18.5 percent in the first eight months.
At home China is facing slowdown from domestic demand end. Manufacturing schedules and new plants are getting slowed up in China due to fall in export. This is very much visible form the import segment where it is found that imports of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products also experienced some growth deceleration, from 18.9 percent and 16 percent in the first half of the year to 16.3 percent and 13.7 percent in the first nine months.

In order to keep the new factory orders to increase china needs to keep European economy alive and for that it needs to invest in EFSF bonds. China has already holds one-third of its total foreign currency reserves in euros. Further the recent turmoil situation of Europe will enable china to expand its investment in Southern and Central Europe. At the same time Europe will be looking for a healthy export market from China under the tag Made in Europe.

Europe is looking for cooperation on issues such as business licensing and legal transparency from china in order to promote and expand its Made in Europe goods. To me its stands out to be the best deal the two nations can work upon since Dollar and US economy both will be under pressure from the Chinese and Euro relationship. China will scout for infrastructure and transportation projects in Europe through the bond purchase avenue resulting economic growth for the former economy. Moreover Germany remains the heart of China in whole Europe in terms of export.

Last but not the least the success of the Cannes meeting and the forthcoming summit of Europe and China will depend on whether EU will be able to keep its promises made in Brussels recently. Moreover china needs the backup hand of euro for making Renminbi the trading currency in the near future. At the same time one should bear in mind that China alone will not be the savior of Europe crisis. The whole in the ;pocket is so deep that China will not take so much risks in name of diversifications of its huge foreign exchange reserves around &3.2 trillion.

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